COP28: The IEA’s criteria for success to maintain our path towards 1.5C

12 Dec COP28: The IEA’s criteria for success to maintain our path towards 1.5C

The executive director of the IEA recently gave his thoughts on the criteria required to enable success. Studies from the IEA suggest that while the accelerated deployment of clean energy has positively impacted climate change, more work is needed. Figures for temperature rises are still high, exceeding the intended 1.5C target, and at present are unlikely to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 2C.

The recent World Energy Outlook 2023 report showed that achieving 1.5C requires collaboration and decisive action in five key areas. The measures for action between now and 2030 include:

1. Triple global renewable power capacity
2. Doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements
3. Focusing on strengthening the commitments by the fossil fuel industry, especially with oil and gas companies, to align activities with the Paris Agreement, beginning by reducing methane emissions from operations by 75%
4. Creating large-scale financing mechanisms to triple clean energy investment in emerging and developing regions
5. Committing to steps that ensure a continued decline of fossil fuels, including an end to new approvals of unabated coal-fired power facilities

Developing a structured agreement based on these measures is critical. Achieving them will require several other supporting measures, such as accelerating electricity grids, increasing low-emission fuels and developing additional nuclear sites. Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 would provide nearly a third of the emissions reductions required this decade to achieve the path toward 1.5C. 

However, this requires commitment and decisive action to secure financing for emerging and developing regions. Fatih Birol emphasises that tripling renewables by 2030 is necessary and achievable but highlights that we cannot focus solely on renewable energy as the answer to tackling climate change.

The role and responsibility of the fossil fuel industry

The fossil fuel industry has played a vital role in securing success at COP28 and maintaining momentum towards 1.5C. The IEA believe that this year’s summit hosted by a major oil and gas producer in the Middle East has provided an opportunity to engage and work with the industry.

The recent report, the O&G Industry in Net Zero Transitions, suggested useful engagement between companies concerning the Paris Agreement and the 1.5C goal. The report emphasised the need for concerted efforts to reduce emissions from operations, reducing them by 60% by 2030 and embracing the opportunities in clean energy. Currently, the oil and gas industry invests only 2.5% of its capital spend in clean energy.

Technologies like carbon capture and storage will play a critical role in decarbonising selected parts of the economy where emissions are more challenging to tackle. However, the concept that production can continue as normal, while others are committed to reducing emissions via CCUS would be inconceivable. Oil and Gas producers must display the viability of any new resource development and maintain transparency about supporting the pathway towards 1.5C.

By adhering to the five measures highlighted by the IEA, countries can create renewed hope and support to limit global warming to 1.5C. Birol explains that with all the political uncertainties, countries must recognise the importance of the Paris Agreement and ensure governments continue to deliver on climate action measures.