05 Dec COP28: The shift away from our dependence on fossil fuels remains the top priority
2023 is due to be the hottest year on record, emphasising the critical importance of current discussions at COP28. Recently, the summit focused on finance, with several conversations covering climate finance, but most notably has been the mounting pressure for COP28 to agree on a total phase-out of fossil fuels.
In brief, 118 nations pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. An additional group of 22 countries agreed on a further goal of tripling nuclear energy capacity by 2050. The US government confirmed stricter rulings concerning methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, and the non-profit Climate Trace project released new data showing that countries have been significantly under-reporting their emissions.
The pressure to agree on a phase-out deal is rising at COP28. In a recent speech in Dubai, Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary general, raised concerns about the Global Decarbonisation Accelerator (GDA). During the recent announcement, an initiative of COP28 president Sultan Al-Jaber, big energy businesses accounting for 40% of global oil output committed to eliminating carbon emissions from their operations by 2050. Guterres explained that the announcement failed to include anything about eliminating emissions from fossil fuel consumption when oil and gas are burned by the end consumer.
While there are concerns, the UN secretary general conceded that the GDA initiative was a step forward, particularly the significance of the commitment to eliminate methane emissions by 2030. The signatories include many of the biggest oil and gas companies, including Saudi Aramco and Petrobras. Most oil businesses located in Russia, China, Iran and Kuwait did not sign the initiative but are under increasing pressure to act.
The concern from other group members is by focusing on taking action on Scope 1 operational emissions, we may be distracted from the implications of Scope 3 emissions.
Scientific studies show that with our planet on a path for a temperature rise approximately double the 1.5C target, a considerable shift away from fossil fuels is needed.
Last year’s COP27 delivered a proposal from India to phase down all fossil fuel usage, and it gained the support of over 80 nations. Unfortunately, the plans didn’t progress very far. It’s positive to see discussions and momentum around a phase-out of fossil fuels continuing to grow. The appointment of Jaber, the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, as the COP28 President raised concerns about whether the oil and gas industry is looking to secure an agreement at the summit to ensure any energy transition plans incorporate a long-term role for fossil fuels.
According to the recent draft of negotiations, countries at the summit are considering calling for a formal phase-out of fossil fuels as part of the UN Summit final deal to tackle global warming. The report explains that global emissions from burning fossil fuels will reach record figures this year.
The draft notes that could represent the final agreement from the summit focus on what is considered by many as the defining issue: determining whether nations will agree on eradicating the use of fossil fuels or continue to maintain there is a role for them in the future.
Some influential CEOs of several energy companies have shown support for oil and gas and aimed to strengthen their climate-friendly credentials, like reducing methane emissions. Patrick Pouyanne, the CEO of TotalEnergies, explained that a shift away from oil and gas would take time and must explore ways to utilise technology to produce oil and gas differently to significantly reduce emissions.
The draft notes in the final deal included three options. The first option is an orderly phase-out of fossil fuels. The second option urges for accelerated efforts towards halting unabated fossil fuels. The third option would be to avoid any discussions concerning the phase-out of fossil fuels.
The United States, 27 other European nations and other climate-vulnerable island states are pushing for a phase-out of fossil fuels to tackle the emissions required to avoid the impacts of climate change.
David Waskow, director of World Resources Insitutes International Climate Initiative, stated he doesn’t believe a COP28 outcome was possible without a clear plan to move our dependence away from fossil fuels.
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